CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE AS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM BY BABA ALI MUSTAPHA

          Climate variation refers to the seasonal and annual variation in temperature and rainfall patterns and their distribution within and between regions or countries. Climate change on the other hand refers to long term changes in global weather patterns resulting from changes in the composition of the atmosphere, brought about by emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily carbon dioxide, Methane and nitrous oxide. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased nearly 30%, Methane concentration have more doubled and nitrous oxide concentration have risen by about 15% (AEO, 2002). Those increases have enhanced the heat trapping capacity of the earth atmosphere. Increasing concentration of green house gases are likely to accelerate the rate of climate change. 

          Scientists expect that the average global surface temperature could rise 1-4.5oF (0.6-2.5oC) in the next fifty years and 2.2-10oF (1.4-5.8oC) in the next century with significant regional variations. Evaporation will increase as the climate warms, which will increase average global precipitation. Soil moisture is likely to become more frequent. Sea level is likely to rise along most of the U.S Coast. Scientists generally believe that the combustion of the fossil fuels and other human activities are the primary reasons for the increased concentration of carbon dioxide. Fossil fuel burned to run cars and trucks, heat homes and businesses, and power factories are responsible for about 98% of U.S carbon dioxide emissions, 24% of Methane emission, and 18% of nitrous oxide emission. Increased agriculture, deforestation, landfills industrial production, and mining also contribute a significant share of emission. 

          For Africa, climate variability is determined by prevailing patterns of sea surface temperature, atmospheric winds, regional climate fluctuations in the India and Atlantic Oceans, and by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon-the natural shift in ocean currents and winds off the Coast of South America, which occur every two to seven years. Africa is characterized by considerable climatic variation, both spatial and temporal, and by extreme event such as flooding and drought. These have particularly seriously consequences for the region because of the difficulties experienced in predicting their occurrence and in mitigating their effect and also because many African countries lack the financial resources to make adequate and timely recovery before the next climatic event. The countries of the Horn of Africa and Sahel are the most prone to drought, while those of Western and Central experience flooding periodically. Climate change is likely to bring increased frequency and severity of flooding, and drought to these areas already experiencing variability in rainfall. Additional concerns are risk of desertification in the semi-arid and arid regions, resulting to food insecurity. 

          Urgent action is required to develop alternative, clean and renewable sources of energy particularly for Africa to avoid increasing GHG emission and to stem widespread deforestation. The ability of human systems to adapt to and cope with climate change depend on a number of factors such as; Gross Domestic Productivity ( Capital, Incidence of poverty, life expectancy, insurance mechanisms, degree of urbanization, access to public health, access to education, community organizations, existing early warning systems and political stability. Those with the least capacity to adapt are the most vulnerable. 

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation 

          Since the industrial revolution, human-induced activities including industrial processes, energy generation from fossil fuels, deforestation and intensive land use practices have produced Green House Gases (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere at rate faster than the planet ability to sequester them. Worldwide CO2 emission from fossil fuels continue to increase at a rate of about 1% p.a under a business as usual scenario, by 2035 human will annually emit about 12 billion tons of CO2. IPCC (2001) stated that “human influences will continue to change atmosphere composition throughout the 21st century”. Projection suggest that the global average surface temperature is expected to increase by 1.4oC to 5.8oC until 2100, with extreme value of over 100oC possible with a low probability. Warming would be particularly evident and rapid in land area, with special reference to those placed in high latitude and during winter. Globally, precipitation is projected to rise with the occurrence of more rainfall and large annual variations in some regions and less in others. Average sea level would rise by 0.09-0.88 meters between 1990-2100. Unusual weather events would likely increase including for instance greater frequency and intensity of E.L Nino type of weather patterns. According to these projections, many territories will experience intensified rainfalls, more violent cyclones will intervene in tropical areas while mid-latitude continental regions would be at the risk of drought. Climate change as described in the IPCC scenarios will have impacts on food security, fresh water supply, rural and urban settlements and their infrastructure, even if emissions would be curbed immediately. Thus human need to mitigate and adapt to climate change. 

 Instruments for action: Mitigation and Adaptation 

          Climate change is a problem with unique characteristics. It is global, long term (up to several centuries) and involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental, economic, political, institutional, social and technological processes. The United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) identified two response to climate change; mitigation of climate change by reducing Green House Gas emission and enhancing sinks and adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Until recently, mitigation was seen as a stand alone solution to solving the climate change problem. Most of the industrialized countries therefore committed themselves as signatories to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and recently the Paris deal to adopting National Policies and taking corresponding measure on the mitigation of climate change and to reducing their overall green house gas emissions (United Nations 1997). Unfortunately, an assessment of current efforts aimed at mitigating climate change as presented by the Working Group II fourth Assessment Report (WGIII AR4, 2007, Chapter II), shows that current commitments would not lead to a stabilization of atmospheric green house gas concentrations. In fact according to the Working Group I fourth Assessment Report (WGIAR4), no mitigation effort, no matter how rigorous and relentless, will prevent climate change from happening in the next few decades (Christensen et. Al, 2007, Meehl et. Al 2007). Adaptation is therefore unavoidable (Parry et.al 1998). However, reliance on adaptation alone is also likely to lead to a magnitude of climate change in the long run to which effective adaptation is no longer possible or only at very high social, economic and environmental costs. Today, it is no longer a question of whether to mitigate climate change or to adapt to it. Both adaptation and mitigation are now essential in reducing the expected impacts of climate change in human and their environment. 

Mitigation and Adaptation: Complementary, Substitutable or Independent? 

           Adaptation and mitigation can be complementary, substitutable or independent of each other. Both are complimentary because they are tied to sustainable development. Although adaptation and mitigation may be substitutes for each other since mitigation will always be required to avoid dangerous and irreversible changes to the climate system. Both may be independent in the sense that the adaptation research community has put its emphasis on local and place-based analysis, the mitigation research community on the other hand has always focused attention on the global level. The mitigation research community has also focused strongly through not exclusively, on technological and economic issues and has traditionally relied on ‘top-dawn” aggregate modeling for studying tradeoffs inherent in mitigation, while the adaptation research community has focused on “bottom up” approach addressing several sectoral issues. 

          Irrespective of the scale of the mitigation measures that are implemented in the next 10-20 years, adaptation measures will still be required due to the inertia in the climate system. As noted by Stern (2006) and IPCC (2007) reports changes in the climate are already causing setbacks to economic and social development in some developing countries with temperature increases of less than 1oC. Unabated climate change would increase the risks and lost very substantially. Both adaptation and mitigation depend on capital assets, including social capital, and both affect capital vulnerability and GHG emissions. Through this mutual dependence, both are tied to sustainable development. 

Important Difference and Similarities between mitigation and adaptation

A: Difference

Mitigation	Adaptation
1. mitigation reduces all impact of climate change and reduces the adaptation challenges.	1. Adaptation is selective: it can take advantage of positive impact and reduce negative one.
2. Mitigation has global benefits: ancillary benefits might be released at the local/regional level.	2. Adaptation typically works on the scale of an impact system, which is regional at best, but mostly local (although some adaptation might result in spill-overs across national boundaries, for example by changing International commodity prices in agriculture or forest product markets).
3. Expressed at CO2 equivalents emissions reductions achieved by different mitigation actions can be compassed and if the cost of implementing the actions are known, their cost effectiveness can be determined and compared.	3. the benefits of adaptation are difficult to express in a simple meric, impending comparisons between adaptation efforts. Moreover, as a result of the predominantly local or regional effect of adaptation, benefits of adaptation will be valued differently depending on the social, economic and political context within which they occur.
4. The benefits of mitigation carried out today will be evident in several decades because of the long resistance time of the green house gases in the atmosphere (ancillary benefits such as reduced pollution are possible in the near term.)	4. Many adaptation measures would be effective immediately and yield benefits by reducing vulnerability to climate variability.
5. The initiative for mitigation has tended to stem from international agreement and ensuing national public policies (sometimes supplemented by community-based or private-sector initiatives)	5. whereas the bulk of adaptation actions have historically been motivated by the self interest of affected private actors and communities, possible facilitated by public policies.

B. Similarities

Mitigation/Adaptation

1.  The two options are implemented on the same local or regional scale, and may be motivated by local and regional priorities and interests as well as global concerns.

2. Both options change relative price, which can lead to slight adjustments in consumption and investment patterns and thus to changes in the affected economy’s development pathway, but direct trade-offs are rare.

3. Mitigation efforts can foster adaptive capacity if they eliminate market failures and distortions as well as perverse subsidues that prevent actors from making decisions on the basis of the true social cost of the available options.

4. The implications of adaptation can be both positive and negative, for mitigation. For example, afforestation that is a part of regional adaptation strategy also make a positive contribution to mitigation. In contrast, adaptation actions that require increase energy use from carbon-emitting source (e.g in door cooking) would affect mitigation effort negatively.

5. Both are tied to sustainable development.

Why climate change mitigation and adaptation (Five reasons for concern)

          Mitigation and adaptation as response strategies are crucial in the world today because of the following reasons; unique and threatened ecosystems, global aggregate impacts, distribution of impacts, extreme weather events and large scale singular effect.

(i) Unique and threatened ecosystems

          Small increases in global average temperature (e.g < 1oC mean global warming) can cause significant and irreversible damage to some systems and species, including possible local, regional and global loss. Aquatic life, critically endangered species and natural systems such as forest birds, mountain gorillas, coral reefs, mangroves, wetlands, semi-arid lands are being threatened by climate change impacts. Human settlements along coastal regions, Islands, flood plains and those who depend on natural resources that are sensitive to climate change are already facing the impact of climate change.

(ii) Aggregate Impacts

          A small temperature increase could negatively impact on aggregate market sector thereby affecting many Nation Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Sector such as agriculture, water resources, human health could have negative net impact.

(iii) Distribution of Impacts

          Developing countries tend to be more vulnerable and are expected to suffer more to climate change than developed countries. A small temperature increase will have net negative impacts on market sectors in many developing countries due to low adaptive capacity, poverty, illiteracy and other factors.

(iv) Extreme Weather Events

          Many climate impacts are related to extreme weather events, which cause massive damage arising from their severity, suddenness and unpredictability. The impacts of extreme events such as floods, cyclone, storms, hurricanes, high temperature and fire could strangle affect specific sectors and regions. Agriculture and water resources may be particularly vulnerable to change in hydrological and temperature extremes. Heat-related mortality could increase with higher temperatures. Floods may lead to the widespread of water related and vector borne diseases, particularly in developing countries. Many of the monetary damages from extreme events will have repercussions on a broad scale of financial institutions, from insurance to investors to banks.

(iv) Large Scale Singular Effects

          Human induced climate change has the potential to trigger large scale changes in earth’s systems that could have severe consequences at regional or global scales. Example of such events include disintegration of the West Antarctic and Greenland and Ice sheets, and major Perturbation of biosphere-related carbon dynamics. These discontinuities could cause severe impacts on the regional and even global scale that may be difficult to adapt to or mitigate.

Mitigation as a response strategy

          Mitigation of climate change aims to answer some of these questions:

-         What can we do to reduce or avoid climate change?

-         What are the policy action that can overcome the barriers to implementation?

-         What will happen if we do not act now?

Key Mitigation Technologies and Practices (options) currently available

S/N	Sector	Mitigation Options
1	Forestry	Afforestation, agroforestation, forest protection, community forestry, woodlot, reforestation, etc
2	Energy	Improved supply and distribution efficiency: fuel switching from coal to gas: nuclear power, renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power.
3	Transport	More fuel efficient vehicles, biofuels, modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems, non motorized transport cycling, walking); land-use and transport planning.
4	Building	Efficient lighting: more efficient electrical appliance and heating and cooling devices, improved cook stores, improved insulation, passive and active solar design for heating and cooling; alternative refrigeration fluids recovery and recycle of fluorinated gases.
5	Industry	More efficient end-use electrical equipment; heat and power recovery, material recycling and substitution, control of non-CO2 gases emission, and a wide array of process specific technologies.
6	Agriculture	Improve crop and grazing land management, restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded land; improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce methane emission, improved nitrogen, fertilizer application techniques to reduce N2O emissions, dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use; improve energy efficiency.
7	Waste	Landfill methane recovery, waste incineration with energy recovery, composing of organic waste, control waste treatment, recycling and waste minimization.

What are the market based mechanisms for mitigating climate change according to Kyoto Protocol?

          Those marked based mitigation mechanisms agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol which will be implemented by Annext 1 Parties (industrialized Countries) include the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Emission Trading (ET) and Joint Implementation (JI). These market mechanisms seek to lower  the cost of achieving emissions targets. The CDM allows Annex 1 Parties to invest in projects in non-Annex 1 parties that reduce emissions or that enhance sinks through afforestation or reforestation. The Annex 1 Party can then use credits generated by those projects towards meeting its emissions target. Similarly, through JI, Annex 1 Parties can receive credit for investing in projects in other Annex 1 Parties. Finally, emission trading allows Annex 1 Parties to trade credits or emission allowance among themselves.

          It is crucial for indigenous people to understand more fully these market-based mechanisms. Equipped with adequate information, they can evaluate the risks and opportunities which will allow them to make their own decisions on whether to engage with the emission market or not. The best way to mitigate climate change is to change the unsustainable production and consumption pattern which is still the prevalent system dominating this world. The best mitigation measures involve changing lifestyles individually and collectively, and structurally changing the development path towards a sustainable and low-carbon one.

Adaptation as a Response Strategy

          According to the IPCC, the requirements for a country to assume a high adaptative capacity include; a prosperous and stable economy, a high degree of access to technology options, well designed adaptation strategies, a system in place for the dissemination of climate change and adaptation information at all levels as well as a distribution of access to resources based on equity principles.

          

         Baba Ali Mustapha is with the Department of Planning/Research, Ministry of Environment, Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria.

Reference:

          The research was based on the work of Professor Haruna K. Ayuba and Dr. A. Dami, both of University of Maiduguri, Nigeria, from the Book “ Environmental Science, an introductory text”.